020-123456789
萍乡市某某投资咨询业务部
Say a fond farewell to the small and incredibly strong Big 12. Next year the conference will likely be less strong, only because it will be less small.
Houston, Cincinnati, BYU and UCF will join the conference for 2023-24. Kelvin Sampson's Cougars are ranked No. 1 in the nation, of course, and adding UH will only enhance the league's might.
Even so, conference expansions by their nature increase the chances one of your members will have a season closer to the median level of Division I performance. It's conceivable that next season there could be an occasional "night off," relatively speaking, on the Big 12 schedule.
That's not the case this season. Even last-place Oklahoma has played its way into the top 75 of the NET rankings. As a result, every road game in the Big 12 is a Quadrant 1 contest.
More importantly, the 10-member league is easily putting seven teams into the top 50 of the NET. Depending on the day, there can be eight or even nine such teams. This means the majority of neutral-floor contests at the Big 12 tournament will carry the Quadrant 1 label.
All of these high-level opportunities bake in the potential for volatility on the bubble. Oklahoma State has seen the downside of that dynamic. The Cowboys have dropped in mock brackets from a near-middle seed to the edge of the field.
Conversely, a team like Texas Tech has benefited from the opportunity to face quality opponents. The Red Raiders rose from a bubble afterthought to the heart of the action thanks to four consecutive Quadrant 1 wins against Kansas State, Texas, West Virginia and Oklahoma.
Now Texas Tech occupies roughly the same position outside the projected field as a fellow bubble team like Clemson. For the time being, however, the Tigers can only wish they had as many potential rungs on their ladder as do the Red Raiders.
It will be up to the NCAA's D-I men's basketball committee to sort through the strong gravitational pull created by this year's Big 12. Next year, at least, that task promises to be a bit more straightforward with the league's new 14-member configuration.
Here's our current projection of the bubble:
Teams from traditional one-bid conferences: 22
Locks: 33 teams
The bubble: 24 teams for 13 available spots
Should be in: 3 teams
Work to do: 21 teams
ACC | Big 12 | Big East | Big Ten | Pac-12|SEC |
American | Mountain West | Others
Joe Lunardi breaks down North Carolina's résumé and how the Tar Heels can earn a berth to the NCAA tournament.
Virginia Cavaliers, Miami Hurricanes, Duke Blue Devils
Pittsburgh Panthers
A seven-point loss on the road to a Notre Dame team ranked No. 188 in the NET is not how a projected No. 9 seed like Pitt would choose to begin March. Perhaps this can all blow over, relatively speaking, with a win on the road at Miami in the season finale. If the Panthers should close out the season by dropping these particular two games, however, Jeff Capel's team will be hoping to be bracketed with the highest quality opponents the ACC tournament can muster in a down year. The Panthers' already bubbly numbers in the NET and strength of record will take a significant hit with the loss to the Fighting Irish. (updated March 1)
NC State Wolfpack
The Wolfpack were cruising along on the No. 8 line in mock brackets until a 25-point loss at home to Clemson sent them down to double-digit-seed terrain. Now, a four-point loss at Duke has brought down the curtain on NC State's regular season. For the moment, a No. 10 seed would appear to be the most likely landing spot, though that trajectory might be changed for good or ill by the ACC tournament. Kevin Keatts guided this offense to a 12% turnover rate over the course of the ACC season, the lowest number seen in major conference play since Wisconsin's Final Four team of 2015. (updated Feb. 28)
North Carolina Tar Heels
Counting an 11-point win at Florida State, North Carolina has played 30 games to reach this precarious position. Now the Tar Heels face what is, in effect, a two- or three-game season. Win at home against Duke and add another victory, or especially two, at the ACC tournament and you're likely looking at an NCAA tournament team. Conversely, a loss to the Blue Devils followed by anything other than a deep run in Greensboro could well be insufficient. For the record, Bubble Watch doesn't buy into the school of thought that says UNC is receiving the benefit of the doubt to even be considered this close. Both the shape of this profile (light on Quad 1 wins) and its bottom-line numbers will net out to bubbly major conference-variety peril year after year. That peril should be resolved one way or another by the next 80 to 120 minutes of basketball. (updated Feb. 27)
Clemson Tigers
A profile-lifting 25-point win at NC State was followed by a seven-point loss at Virginia. Now, Clemson faces something of a quandary. A home date against Notre Dame in the last game of the season offers little to no help when you're trying to play your way into the field from the "next four out" section. This also is likely to be the case with respect to the first opponent thrown the Tigers' way by the ACC tournament bracket. It's probable Clemson will have to win a minimum of two games before getting another chance at an opponent that can measurably improve this profile. (updated Feb. 28)
JaKobe Coles knocks down a free throw with four seconds to play as TCU survives to defeat Texas Tech, 83-82.
Kansas Jayhawks, Texas Longhorns, Iowa State Cyclones, Baylor Bears, Kansas State Wildcats, TCU Horned Frogs
West Virginia Mountaineers
Capturing a three-point road win at Iowa State possesses value not only as a victory for West Virginia, but also for what it prevented. A loss against the Cyclones would have dropped the Mountaineers to 16-14 with five defeats in the last six outings. Instead, West Virginia won its first road game in over a month and will now host Kansas State as a member of the "last four in" section of many brackets. Erik Stevenson and Joe Toussaint combined for 42 points against ISU. (updated Feb. 27)
Oklahoma State Cowboys
Two weeks ago the Cowboys were on the No. 8 line in mock brackets. What happened next was five straight losses, and now Oklahoma State is perched just outside the projected field. A win at Texas Tech in the season finale would help immeasurably. OSU played excellent defense over the first half of the Big 12 season, but those days are long gone. The Cowboys have allowed opponents to score 1.20 points per possession during this current five-game skid. (updated Feb. 27)
Texas Tech Red Raiders
Of the 363 teams in Division I, Texas Tech has played its way into the tiny sliver of programs that truly don't know their postseason fates. At 16-14, the Red Raiders could make the field of 68 with a deep run in the Big 12 tournament. Without that kind of performance in Kansas City, Missouri, however, it is near certain that Texas Tech won't hear its name called on Selection Sunday. A win at home over Oklahoma State in the season's final game, if indeed it were to occur, clearly wouldn't close the gap between where the Red Raiders are now and where they want to land. This team will be arriving in K.C. on a mission. (updated Feb. 28)
Providence's Jared Bynum sheds a UConn defender and proceeds to knock down a 3-pointer.
Marquette Golden Eagles, Xavier Musketeers, UConn Huskies, Creighton Bluejays, Providence Friars
Payton Sandfort's clutch 3-pointer gives the Hawkeyes momentum as they take care of business in overtime to defeat the Spartans 112-106.
Purdue Boilermakers, Indiana Hoosiers, Maryland Terrapins, Northwestern Wildcats, Michigan State Spartans, Iowa Hawkeyes, Illinois Fighting Illini
Get your favorite live sports, stories and originals with ESPN+, Disney+ and Hulu. Upgrade to a Disney Bundle plan and start streaming something for everyone today!
Rutgers Scarlet Knights
Rutgers has now been a part of two dramatic collapses in the span of four days. In their last outing, the Scarlet Knights outscored Penn State 16-3 over the final nine minutes of the game to capture a pivotal win on the road. Now that shoe is on the other foot. Minnesota rallied from a 10-point deficit with 1:15 left to stun Rutgers 75-74 on a Jamison Battle buzzer-beater at the Barn in Minneapolis. Steve Pikiell's team entered the contest projected as a No. 9 seed, but that cushion has been greatly reduced after losing to what at the opening tip was the NET's No. 240-ranked team. (updated March 2)
Wisconsin Badgers
When you're literally the last team in the projected field, that's precarious. When you hold that position or something very close to it for almost two weeks, however, it's both precarious and steady. Will the steadiness end with Wisconsin's two-point loss at home to Purdue? It's not a bad loss, of course, but other bubble teams are rising and Selection Sunday is closer every day. Greg Gard's team is 16-13 and will close the regular season at Minnesota. If the Badgers were to prevail there, they would arrive at the Big Ten tournament assuming that there is work to be done. (updated March 2)
Michigan Wolverines
Considering Michigan already had the season sweep of Northwestern and a road win at Rutgers, a victory at Illinois might have been sufficient to push the Wolverines into the projected field. Instead, Juwan Howard's team came up just short in double-overtime. Results-based metrics like strength of record is where Michigan's profile could still use some help at this very late date. (The NET ranking is about the same, but the committee has given bids to lower NET numbers than UM's.) Happily for the Wolverines they close their regular season at Indiana. A win in Bloomington is one of the best "results" available in the Big Ten. (updated March 2)
Penn State Nittany Lions
Written off as a lost bubble cause after losing at home to Rutgers, the Nittany Lions are in fact very much in the running after an overtime win at Northwestern. Cam Wynter hit the game-winning corner 3 for Penn State in the final second of the extra session. Naturally, earning an at-large invite won't be easy. Micah Shrewsberry's group started from "next four out" territory and will now likely receive the customary incremental promotion to "first four out." The key term is still "out." The Nittany Lions have arrived at this point thanks not only to the victory on the road against the Wildcats but also to ones over Indiana and Iowa along with a season sweep of Illinois. Now Penn State needs to add a win at home over Maryland to the list. (updated March 1)
Desmond Cambridge Jr. hits the half-court shot at the buzzer, giving Arizona State the win over Arizona.
Arizona Wildcats, UCLA Bruins
USC Trojans
Andy Enfield's team occupies a position of relative safety but also one of high variance. Before a six-point loss at home to Arizona, the Trojans were a projected No. 9 seed. That location in the bracket of course gives the team what would appear to be a healthy amount of distance from the cut line. True enough, but a loss to Arizona State in the home finale could still raise the stakes for the Pac-12 tournament, if only from a "staying away from the First Four" perspective. (updated March 3)
Arizona State Sun Devils
The Sun Devils played themselves onto the line between "in" and "out" with a thrilling win at Arizona. Bob Hurley's team was unable to recreate that magic at UCLA, however, falling to the Bruins by 18. Arizona State will get another opportunity to record an important victory in the regular-season finale at USC. The Sun Devils haven't won a road game against the Trojans since Andy Enfield's first season nine years ago. Now would be an excellent time for ASU to break that streak. (updated March 2)
Oregon Ducks
The good news for the Ducks is that this week things are proceeding as well as can be expected. When the schedule gives you a home game against Cal, your objective is to record a comfortable win. Mission accomplished: Oregon prevailed by 33. The bad news for Dana Altman's men is that at 17-13 they're following their plan a long way away from the cut line. Now a no-drama win at home against Stanford is required, followed by some surprises over UCLA -- and/or Arizona-level opponents at the Pac-12 tournament. (updated March 3)
Ricky Council IV can't get the three-pointer to fall at the buzzer as Alabama holds off Arkansas, 86-83.
Alabama Crimson Tide, Tennessee Volunteers, Kentucky Wildcats, Texas A&M Aggies, Arkansas Razorbacks, Missouri Tigers
Auburn Tigers
Auburn played an outstanding game at Alabama, but there are no moral victories on the bubble. The Tigers held the lead for the first 37 minutes of regulation, lost in overtime and now face an uncertain tournament fate. Bruce Pearl's team was found in the "last four byes" section of the projected bracket prior to tipoff. That's where this team will stay for the time being, and Auburn will host Tennessee in the season finale. A win against the Volunteers could be sufficient to put the Tigers securely in the field of 68. A loss, on the other hand, would raise the stakes for this team at the SEC tournament significantly. (updated March 1)
Mississippi State Bulldogs
The Bulldogs played their way into the projected bracket with wins on consecutive Saturdays, first at home against Missouri and then on the road versus Arkansas. MSU then just missed on victories that would have boosted them past "last four in" territory, losing at home to Kentucky by three and falling on the road in overtime to Mizzou. The end result is that Mississippi State has been shown as one of the last teams in the field for the better part of two weeks now. It's possible the Bulldogs will stay there if, for example, they lose another close game, this time at Vanderbilt in the season finale. Still, win or (especially) lose in Nashville, Tennessee, the Bulldogs might need to do some work at the SEC tournament before they can feel truly safe. (updated Feb. 28)
DeAndre Williams slices through defense to beat shot clock for Memphis
Houston Cougars
Memphis Tigers
Memphis looked shaky a month ago when it lost at home to Tulane, but since, the Tigers have gone 6-1 with the only loss coming on the road at Houston. Now that Penny Hardaway's group has successfully navigated its way to the rematch against the Cougars, it's high time to promote this team to "should be in." All of the Tigers' seven losses this season came by single digits, including the ones at UH and at Alabama. Memphis also has wins over Texas A&M, Auburn and emerging SEC giant slayer Vanderbilt. Results-based metrics love this particular 22-7 record. Assuming the Tigers perform to expectations at the American tournament, they should be in. (updated March 2)
Nathan Mensah elevates to finish alley-oop for San Diego State
San Diego State Aztecs
Complete your bracket by selecting the winner for each game of the 2023 men's NCAA tournament. Play Tournament Challenge
Boise State Broncos
Bubble Watch suspects Boise State might have made the NCAA tournament without winning at home against San Diego State, but now the Broncos will never have to test that theory. Thanks to a 14-0 run to finish the evening, BSU defeated the Aztecs 66-60. The victory came just in the nick of time for a team that mock brackets had dropped to "last four byes" if not just "last four in," period. There was even a court storm in Boise, Idaho. It was big, and now Boise State has the opportunity to finish strong on the road against Utah State. (updated Feb. 28)
Nevada Wolf Pack
A run of six wins in seven outings had slowly lifted Nevada up to a No. 10 or even No. 9 seed in the projected bracket. Losing by nine on the road to a Wyoming team that entered the evening 8-20 doesn't wipe out all of that progress. There will, however, be a slight adjustment in the seed forecast. The Wolf Pack are likely to play their final home game against UNLV as a "last four byes" team in the mock brackets. (updated Feb. 27)
Utah State Aggies
As of tipoff at UNLV, the Aggies were projected to miss the NCAA tournament. It would be close, the mock brackets were saying, but Utah State would not hear its name called. Then Ryan Odom's group went out and defeated the Runnin' Rebels 91-66. The NET adored that result, and USU was already in the top 30 on that metric. This season the Aggies specialized in beating nonconference opponents that are stronger than commonly assumed: Washington State, Oral Roberts, Bradley, Utah Valley and Santa Clara. Utah State was swept by San Diego State and split its series with Nevada. In its season finale at home, USU will go for the split with Boise State as well. At 23-7, Odom's team is top 25 at KenPom and sports a ranking for strength of record that's on par with, for example, Wisconsin's. USU is roughly 50 spots higher than the Badgers in the NET. (updated March 2)
Nicholas Boyd makes beautiful pass for a basket
Gonzaga Bulldogs, Saint Mary's Gaels
Florida Atlantic Owls
In the five days between wins against UTEP and Rice, the Owls ascended from the "last four byes" list in projected brackets to a No. 9 seed. That's a difference of just a few spots on the seed list, but it's a significant difference in degree of risk. Or it would be for a major-conference No. 9 seed. But can FAU really be assured it will receive an at-large bid if it needs it? Only the committee knows for sure, but Dusty May's group is at least treading on solid ground historically. At the moment, an average of Florida Atlantic's results-based metrics (strength of record and KPI) would seed this group on the No. 8 line. In the past, such metrics have been a trusty indicator of impending committee doings. The Owls hope that's the case at least one more time. (updated March 2)
Oral Roberts Golden Eagles
The Golden Eagles have already accomplished something that either no other team in the country will do or that only one other squad will equal. Oral Roberts ran the table in Summit League play, posting a perfect 18-0 record. The only other Division I team that still has a chance at an undefeated conference season is Eastern Washington in the Big Sky. Now Paul Mills and his team will prepare for the Summit tournament, which will be played at the Denny Sanford Premier Center in Sioux Falls. ORU will have to win three games as the favorite in a bracket in which the top six seeds receive byes into the quarterfinals. (updated Feb. 25)
Charleston Cougars
For a team from KenPom's No. 26-ranked conference, Charleston shows remarkably strong at-large credentials. The Cougars are 28-3 with a win at home over Virginia Tech to their name. Depending on the day, Pat Kelsey's group is either in or very close to the top 50 in the NET. Not to mention Charleston's been tapped at various times as "next four out" material by Joe Lunardi. That being said, the Cougars would be well advised to go ahead and grab that CAA automatic bid if they can. The NET may be a bit out over its skis on a team KenPom and Torvik have closer to Nos. 70 and 65, respectively. Anyway, North Texas was left out last year with similar numbers for the NET and for strength of record. Such fine distinctions and minute considerations can be brushed aside by going out and winning the Colonial tournament. (updated Feb. 27)
North Texas Mean Green
Conference USA hasn't sent two teams to the NCAA tournament since the Memphis days over a decade ago. What the league has lacked in multibid results, however, it has more than made up for in near misses. C-USA has become a steady supplier of at-large hopefuls in recent years, and no program has been steadier than North Texas. The Mean Green knocked off Purdue in the 2021 round of 64 and are 31-6 in conference play since then. Now Grant McCasland's 24-6 team is surfacing once again in the bubbly 50s in the NET rankings and for strength of record. Possibly this is the year for both the Mean Green and C-USA. (updated March 2)
